No, the odds greatly favor going
for the overtrick. Half the time the
♥A
will be onside and Declarer gets his overtrick and a good score. And even when
the ♥A
is offside it’s unlikely that the defense will then run the suit, because:
-
The Hearts will be blocked if West has QTx or Jx or similar holdings.
-
The Hearts will also be blocked if East has AQT or AJ or the like.
- Even if the Hearts are not blocked the defense may do the job themselves
(for example, East may hold AQJx and not realize that, after winning the
♥A,
he must return a low Heart).
- The defense might not realize that the Hearts are running and may win the
♥A and
persist with Hearts.
The full deal is:
►
|
♠ 543
♥
K3
♦
QT965
♣ KQ5 |
|
♠ 876
♥
A6
♦
A42
♣ J9732 |
Dummy
West East
Declarer |
♠ QJT9
♥
QJT75
♦
7
♣ T86 |
|
♠ AK2
♥
9842
♦
KJ83
♣ A4 |
|
It’s a case of “Heads Declarer
wins, tails she loses only occasionally”. Who could turn down a bet like that?
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